Minnesota and Houston Offseason guides

The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the few teams that are close to operating in the 2nd apron of the salary cap.  On top of that, they have a problem quite literally only they have amongst team’s in the league. Their ownership is in a power struggle right now between a group,  headed by Alex Rodriguez and Marc Lore, and current owner Glenn Taylor. If the two sides cannot agree on who will take control, then they’ll head to an arbitration hearing to settle the dispute. This affects their team in a major way because Tim Conolly needs to know how he attacks the offseason and upgrades this team. Whoever is at the head of ownership will need to get their wallet out because the Timberwolves currently have three guys on a max contract in Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, and Karl Anthony-Towns and are close to going over the second apron. A key date for them to keep in mind is July 1 when a new league season starts. Because of this, they aren’t liable to the second apron restrictions so they can make all necessary moves, but only after July 1. If Minnesota chooses to take actions before July 1, they’ll be in the second apron. They’ll have a $205 million bill in 2025-26 that will put them in the second apron as well, however, the CBA includes a cap soothing. A rule that was implemented due to the infamous 2016 offseason. This means the league’s revenue jump can only increase a maximum of 10%, unlike in 2016 when the cap increased by 32% and ultimately gave the Warriors room to sign Kevin Durant. If the cap increases by 10% in 2025-26, then Minnesota will be able to avoid the second apron in both years. 

Now into the on court actions for Minnesota. The Timberwolves blistered the league this year with one of the top defenses and with Anthony Edwards at the reins of the offense. Head coach Chris Finch was finally able to get the best out of the Gobert and KAT tandem. In 2022-23, in 1095 possessions they posted only a +0.9 net difference (offensive rating - defensive rating). This past year, their NET rating on the floor together was +9.2 in over double the amount of possessions. On top of this, Anthony Edwards took a mammoth jump into being a superstar. The knock on Edwards in the last two years was his efficiency along with his playmaking ability. This year, he improved his jump shot shooting in every shooting category along with figuring out how to finish around the basket better. The playmaking is really what took a step forward as well. He averaged 5.1 assists this season, a career high, and helped put everyone else on the floor in better spots. Ultimately, Edwards still has a long way to go in becoming a perennial playmaker, something I think he is capable of. Remember, he is still only 22 years old and just finished his 4th season. His playmaking was exposed in the playoffs, especially against the Mavericks. However, he also sent his welcome message and put the rest of the league on notice. He absolutely torched the Phoenix Suns in the first round, helping his team to a sweep of the big three in Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal and put up 30+ points in 3 of the 4 games, which also included 40 points in the close out game. He then led his team to the most impressive back-to-back wins in the playoffs against the Nuggets on the road in which he had 43 points in the opening game and then helped lead his team to the most demoralizing home loss the Nuggets had in quite some time. He did struggle in the last 7 games of the postseason , but this is the farthest he’s been into the playoffs in his career and it’s part of the process of growing him into a superstar player in this league. I’m not ready to put him in the Michael Jordan conversations he was drawing up after the first 2 games against the Nuggets, but if he’s got the mentality many believe him to have, the Timberwolves will have a top 5 player in the league for the next decade. 

Another important part of the season was KAT. He played well this year and was a well oiled machine going into the end of season unfortunately, he suffered a knee injury that required surgery. He was able to return for the last couple of regular season games and didn’t miss any games in the postseason.  It was a very bumpy playoffs for the self pro-claimed best big man shooter of all-time. I disagree. But, this is the Karl Anthony-Towns' experience. He’s sometimes extremely reckless on defense, often gambling for steals that lead to unnecessary fouls. Then you look up at the scoreboard and he has 44 in the first half, but he’s getting benched at the end of the game because of his late-game shot selection. KAT is one of the more interesting players in the league. His good can be really good and his bad leaves you scratching your head. If the Timberwolves decide to move off of him via trade to avoid the 2nd apron restrictions, I think it would be a conflicted action. He’s entering his 9th season, even if his mistakes suggest he’s a rookie, but he allows them to maximize Gobert on defense. But, the person who allows them to feel a little bit comfortable trading him is Naz Reid.

The reigning Sixth-man of the year award winner, Reid had a tremendous season coming off his new contract two seasons ago. His shooting at his size off the bench gave the Timberwolves a similar look when KAT was out of the game. Along with Reid, the Timberwolves also had a productive season out of Jaden McDaniels. His defensive size and versatility allowed for him to draw the best offensive players on the  opposing team. Overall, the Timberwolves are a 8 man deep team in the playoffs and had an exceptional year for the franchise. Their needs in the offseason should be figuring out who is at the controls of the organization via ownership. This will help paint a clear picture for president of basketball operations, TIm Conolly and help signal which type of team he can build overall. The top priority should be getting a back-up point guard for an aging Mike Conley, who has a couple of years left on his contract, and finding some more shooting to surround Edwards. Finding these types of players can help keep them below the second apron and help them with roster flexibility throughout the next two seasons. 

The Houston Rockets are one of the more intriguing young teams in the NBA. They have an interesting combination of “older” players in Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. They also have one of the most compelling young cores in the entire league. Jabari Smith, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Jalen Green, and Tari Easton. The challenge the front office has now is to start creating more momentum towards getting out of the play in and making the playoffs. The two headed monsters of Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun are eligible for rookie max extensions. Both, I think, should get them and it would be foolish for Houston to whiff on either one. They aren’t handicapped by either the first or second apron, but can only use the 12.7 million mid-level tax exemption or use that to trade a player. They have a couple of players who have guaranteed salaries once June 30th and July 6th come around. This presses them against the cap, but the prior sentence takes that into account. Overall, this team needs to find a point guard. VanVleet brings important leadership to the young team and the hiring of Ime Udoka has really helped both sides of the ball. But, this is a team that struggles passing the ball. Sengun is an amazing passer, but he’s not in the Jokic category of playmaking, and no one else is, but it feels like this is the type of offense they’re leaning into. However, they ranked towards the bottom of the league in assist, 3pt made, and a couple other offensive categories. However, think about how Udoka’s tenure started with the Celtics before they took off. Jalen Green is the main player whose development I’d like to see. He struggled at the beginning of the season, but had an electric March that saw the Rockets put pressure on the Warriors for the final spot in the play-in tournament. Over an 11 game stretch Green averaged 30 points per game on 50/45 shooting splits. Oh, and the Rockets won all 11 games.

The second part of the two headed monster is Alperen Sengun. He averaged 21 ppg, 9 rebs and 5 ast a game and was on pace to be “Most Improved” until he was injured in March. Sengun is an amazing passer with good vision and feel. Putting him at the nail (around the middle of the foul line) in most offensive situations makes the right read in a lot of scenarios. His post game along with his size makes it difficult for opponents to cover him. His shooting took a slight dip this year, but I’m confident he’ll regain his rhythm. Sengun however, struggles on defense, especially with the pick and roll. He ‘s not extremely quick.  So, playing him at the level of the screen makes it a challenge for him to keep the guard in front. However, playing him in drop coverage was not successful, either. I made the Jokic comparison earlier because their games are similar. I’m not saying Sengun will be as good, or close to as good, as Jokic, as Jokic is a generational player. However, Jokic also struggled on defense early on in his career. But, eventually, the Nuggets were able to put wing defenders around Jokic to help improve the defense. To Jokic’s credit, he also has improved on defense since he came into the league. I think Sengun has the ability to control the entire game for Houston and create easier shots for his teammates. 

Outside of Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun, the Rockets still have a bunch of younger guys. Jabari Smith is quite an interesting player; he's long, athletic and has the mechanics of potentially being a good 3pt shooter, something Ime Udoka wants to incorporate more of into the offense. Tari Easton and Cam Whitmore are both athletic wings who can potentially help on the defensive end given their size and strength. Both can also relentlessly attack and finish above the basket. Finally, Amen Thompson is another wing who can play on defense and offer some more playmaking for the young team. He got a chance to start when Sengun was injured in March and played extremely well. I understand his assists were low this year, but I think at his size and feel for the game he can develop into a solid playmaker. That will make scoring easier for Green and the others. Thompson also  rebounds the crap out of the ball . The Rockets main need this offseason is getting a point guard. They have the 3rd and 44th pick in this year's draft. I’m not saying draft a guy like Reed Sheppard, or his Kentucky teammate Rob Dillingham, but if they felt either of those two would elevate the playmaking,  go for it. When drafting, I’m a big fan of drafting best available over fit. So, if the Rockets feel these two fall into both those categories, go ahead and draft one of them. The Rockets will also be littered with draft assets over the next couple years as part of the Brooklyn trade that included James Harden. It feels like Houston is in a similar position like OKC was 2 years ago, but the west is as tough as ever and it will be challenging to develop this younger team into one of the better teams. I think if people want to see the potential of the Rockets, it was during March when they had an 11 game win streak. The offense flowed well  and they were shooting a lot more threes than earlier in the year. I’m not saying Houston needs to have an OKC jump this year from the 11 seed last year to a top 3 seed, but seeing this team potentially emerge as a 5 or 6 seed or a play-in spot would do wonders for the morale of the front office. Ultimately, this team needs high pressure games like the playoff. They deserve to see what their young core is made of. If I’m a Houston Rockets fan I’m excited to see where this team will go. 

As mentioned before, any news that is released after this article will be recapped before the start of the season.