NBA Tier Rankings

Within each conference I will have 4-5 tiers that I believe each of the team's line up well with at this point in the offseason. Obviously, A LOT can change between now and the start of the NBA season, but a majority of the teams already have their rosters planned out for who they want to attend their training camp. Now that the Olympics and Summer League are over the next part of basketball to look forward to is preseason and then the NBA season. I will start with the Eastern Conference and move to the Western Conference. 

Eastern Conference 

Tier I: Clear favorites to make the finals - Boston Celtics, New York Knicks 

The Boston Celtics and New York Knicks as of now are the clear favorites to win the Eastern Conference to me. The Celtics are an obvious pick, but I can understand why people can balk at the New York Knicks pick, but I‘ll explain why I have them ahead of both Milwaukee and Philadelphia. New York is younger and has more depth then both Philadelphia and Milwaukee. The Knicks already have an added layer of chemistry with Mikal Bridges joining the team and the addition of OG Anunoby makes the perimeter defense of New York extremely difficult to score on. New York battled the Indiana Pacers in 7 games only to lose the war of attrition in the playoffs. They were without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, and eventually lost OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Jalen Brunson in the series against the Pacers. Their depth now increases due to the offseason recovery of the players listed and adding Mikal Bridges to the roster. I feel like I trust the Knicks move because of the playoff risers they have on the team as well. In consecutive playoff runs Jalen Brunson had shown he’s an absolute killer, and this goes back to the days in Dallas when he led a Luka-less Mavs to a 1-1 stalemate against the Jazz in the 2022 playoff where he dropped 40 on the road. This isn’t to say Philadelphia or Milwaukee can’t advance, but both those teams are older and have an injury riddled past from their superstars. Maybe health swings the way for Philadelphia and Milwaukee, but remember the Knicks will do anything to get home-court advantage in the playoffs, where they have been very good as of late. 

The Celtics are an obvious choice, they’re the best team in the league and have the best top end depth in the league. It seems like the entire roster is committed to running back the previous championship squad as well. The underrated part of the Celtics has nothing to do with any player on their team. Sure both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can be upset about how both their summers went with Team USA basketball, but that’s not the key, its head coach Joe Mazzulla. He reached a level of basketball knowledge last season that should only grow. A lot of people dogged him for the lack of timeouts or how horrible the Celtics offense looked in the fourth quarter at times, but the fact of the matter is he coached circles around Jason Kidd in the Finals. He took away all the corner threes the Mavs liked to shoot and it broke them. Mazzulla is still a very young head coach, who with now championship experience will be able to dial up some creative sets and defenses with the players on the roster for next year. Oh and a healthy Kristaps Porzingis is not what the league wants to see in the playoffs either next season. Overall, the Celtics are the favorites with the Knicks right behind them to come out of the East next season. 

Tier II: Non Play-in Hopefuls: Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Indiana Pacers, and Orlando Magic

It’s crazy to think about it, but one of these teams will be in the play-in next and potentially play one of the two teams in the previous tier and potentially two teams in this tier if they want to advance to the NBA finals. I think Milwaukee and Philadelphia are the leaders right now to claim home court advantage, barring any injuries, but it’s not crazy to see the Magic or possibly the Cavaliers sneak into the 3-4 seeds either. 

Both Milwaukee and Philadelphia had a good offseason. Milwaukee took a little bit longer to sign some players, but adding Gary Trent Jr. on a minimum is always great. His shooting is desperately needed and hopefully he can regain his defensive prowess that he showed during his time in Toronto. Ultimately, the superstars both teams have, is why they are the favorites. Each has a top 5 Point Guard in the league along with a top 5 most dominant player and another shot creating wing to help the offense. So why aren’t they ahead of the Knicks? The answer is health. Kris Middleton got surgery on both ankles this offseason he’s also only played in about 60% of games the past 3 seasons. Both Giannis and Dame missed time towards the end of the season and in the playoffs. I don’t fully trust either team yet to remain healthy and steal a top 2 seed, but it can happen. For Philadelphia again it’s health and the aging roster they have. Obviously, Tyrese Maxey is not old and a younger star in the game today, but outside of him the 76ers have a lot of older talent on the roster. I expect they’ll rest Joel Embiid more considering his injury history and Paul George has also been bitten by the injury bug in his career as well. It would not surprise me to see Embiid and George only play around 60-65 regular season games and save themselves for the postseason. 

The Cavaliers, Pacers and Magic are all the younger upstart teams. The Cavaliers have more experience than the other two teams which I think gives them a little bit of an edge over Indiana and Orlando, but Orlando is my dark horse in the East. The Magic pushed the Cavs to game 7 on the road in the first round last season, where they lost and blew a 20 point first half lead, however it is still a great experience for the young squad. Their defensive ability is top 5 amongst the league and they have one of the best young stars in the NBA in Paolo Banchero. Pair him with the two-way wings and Franz Wagner they put on the floor, and the Magic are an extremely dangerous team. As far Cleveland and Indiana. I think the Pacers are the most likely team to take a step back. They were lucky enough to get some injury help and not face Giannis in the first round last year, but the Bucks still took them to 6 games. Not something you want to see from a younger team. They also have the worst defense of anybody in Tier I and II, something they must improve on. The Cavaliers had a very good offseason. They made it to the conference semifinals and signed Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen to extensions this offseason, keeping the core of its team together for at least 2 more seasons. They’ll be a fun team under Kenny Atkinson next season. 

Tier III Play-in Barring a tank: Toronto Raptors, Atlanta Hawks, Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, and Charlotte Hornets

The Play-in teams always seem to be the same for the Eastern Conference. The Bulls and Hawks have been in almost, if not every single play-in since its debut in 2021. The obvious team that can make the jump from this tier to tier II is the Miami Heat. The Heat were missing both Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier in their postseason last season. They lost a close one to the Philadelphia 76ers and were able to demolish the Chicago Bulls to get the 8 seed. They were blitzed by the Boston Celtics in 5 games and lost in the first round. The Heat had a rough offseason as Caleb Martin chose to sign with the 76ers, however they did retain Hayward Highsmith for 2 years on a team friendly deal. Bam Adebayo got a 3 year extension as well. Overall, the roster hasn’t changed much except for getting year older and it feels like this is likely the last time Jimmy Butler and the Heat play a full season together as both sides failed to agree on an extension this offseason. However, you can never count out the Heat. The Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors feel like the likely teams to earn the final two play-in spots just because they aren't as bad as the Bulls or Hornets frankly. I don’t think either team is trying to win, but they’re on similar timelines now. Neither has done a hard roster reset after making trades during this past season and offseason. I think both teams have good enough players to make the play-in, but not enough to advance past the first round. The Bulls right now are an enigma of a front office. They still have Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic on the roster and have a couple fun younger players to pair with them. However, nothing on the team moves me from saying they won’t make the play-in this season. The Charlotte Hornets are my dark horse team to make the play-in this season. I know said earlier that they’re probably the worst team amongst the Tier, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They’re a young feisty team with a lot of young talent on the roster. If they can mesh well and play good basketball for long stretches of time they’ll be in the hint for a play-in spot. A healthy LaMelo Ball is the key for Charlotte.   

Tier IV When’s the draft starting?: Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards, and Brooklyn Nets 

There’s not a whole lot to say about each of the teams above outside of the traveling bill their scouts will be racking up as they explore a potential franchise player in the 2025 draft. None of the teams listed here want to win anything outside of the first pick in the lottery. Frankly the Pistons being on this list again is a little disheartening. Both Washington and Brooklyn made good offseason moves to position themselves for a fresh start. Detroit however has been a disaster the last couple of seasons. They’ve continually picked 5th overall in the last couple of drafts and seem to whiff on any trades they make. All of these teams want to win the Cooper Flagg lottery next June, as he is the presumptive no 1 overall prospect. However, any team ending up in the 5 top next season is getting a potential franchise changing player on their roster in the 2025 draft. 

Western Conference 

Tier I Conference favorites: Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Oklahoma City Thunder

The western conference feels like it's been a warzone ever since Kevin Durant left the Warriors in the 2019 offseason. Each year since has produced a different team in the finals since 2019 and it feels like this year could produce another one. I think the top clear cut favorites on this list are the Thunder and Nuggets which is shocking considering they both did not make the conference finals last season. The Nuggets pick comes down to they are the team I trust the most in the Western Conference. They have an experienced roster and the best player in the world in Nikola Jokic. Which frankly,  is sometimes all you need. The infusion of young talent is clearly needed as they lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in free agency this offseason. However, I’m not betting against Nikola Jokic and be my guest if you want to. Jamal Murray had a very disappointing postseason and Olympics with Canada this summer, but I’m confident they’ll find their way through the west. I think Mike Malone will need to juice up the offense though. They seemed extremely reliant on the two man game of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray so they’ll need to create some better offense and have the two man game play off the main offense and not have it the other way around. Let’s not forget it also took a superhuman comeback by the Timberwolves down 20 points to beat the Nuggets last postseason as well. The Timberwolves to me are the team that could slide down compared to last season. They have the best player in the league under 24 years old in Anthony Edwards and possess the best defense in the league, but they're still young and play a little bit immature. It’s obvious they were gassed from the Denver series as the Mavericks ran through them in 5 games, but they’re still serious contenders next year. The Thunder are my current favorites to come out of the Western conference next season. They had a loaded offseason bringing in Alex Caruso and Isiah Hartenstein to fix some weaknesses from last year’s team. Outside of the Celtics they gave the Mavericks the toughest test in the postseason. If PJ Washington does not miss the entire series it’s possible they’re playing the Celtics in the finals instead of Dallas. They have a top 10 player in the league in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and have a slew of two-way players to surround him with. 

Tier II Non-play in hopefuls: Dallas Mavericks Phoenix Suns, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans

I understand the Lakers and Warriors fans will be upset that their teams are not in this tier, but it signals more disappointment if either of these teams are in the play-in on this list. The early ones are the Suns and Mavericks. After spending every dollar available in Arizona, the Phoenix Suns look to make the postseason again. They weren’t in the play-in last season, but dropping to the 7-10 seeds signals a disappointing season. They had a good offseason though bringing in help at the point guard spot and adding some versatile defenders on the wings, but it still comes down to the health of the team too. Bradley Beal needs to be on the court with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker this season if they want to have a real shot at challenging the better teams in the conference. The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a finals run and signed Klay Thompson in free agency, however will they have enough defense around Luka Doncic to make up for lost of Derrick Jones Jr. and Josh Green? I do not think they will and that is why I have them in this tier. It’s a real possibility I regret this take as Luka is putting up 35, 10, and 10 a night in the postseason and leading them to a series upset like he did last postseason, but the Mavericks turnaround was keyed by its defense after the trade deadline. Adding PJ Washington helped and getting Naji Marshall from the Pelicans this offseason can help make up for the losses on the perimeter. The Grizzlies are my dark horse of the Western Conference. Mike Miller, Ja Morant’s agent, issues a stern warning to the rest of the league that his client is coming for everything this year. Morant missed essentially the entire season from suspension and injury. However, this is a team that earned back-to-back 2 seeds the years prior. There’s no reason why they couldn’t host a first round playoff series given the talent on the roster. I think them being in the play-in would be a little disappointing though after giving up assets to acquire Marcus Smart prior to the start of last year. The Pelicans however, I would expect to turn it around this year. They added Dejounte Murray from the Atlanta Hawks in a trade and have a deep roster of talent. Murray’s insertion into the lineup will help run the offense better and can bolster the perimeter defense as well. If Zion Williamson can stay healthy New Orleans should be able to stay out of the play-in and earn its way into the postseason. 

Tier III: Likely Play-in barring injuries to key players on teams in tiers above: Los Angeles Lakers, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, and Sacramento Kings 

It is crazy to think, but one these teams listed here or in Tier I and II will not make the postseason at all in the 2024-2025 NBA season. The West is as good as it's ever been and will be a bloodbath if the teams want to make the postseason this upcoming year. The Warriors made some good moves in the offseason, but their willingness to not move Brandin Podziemski pushed the Jazz away from making a trade for Lauri Markkanen, something I believe will hurt them in the coming years. The Lakers and Warriors are in the same boat. They’re trying to get their aging generational players back into the conference finals or championship, but frankly I do not see that happening. It is likely that one of the two teams, if not both, do not make it to the postseason this year either. The Houston Rockets are the dark horse of this Tier. They pushed the Warriors last season for the 10 seed and showed real signs of improving last year. I think they take another jump with Ime Udoka at the helm for year two. The Sacramento Kings made a splash this offseason by acquiring DeMar DeRozan from the Chicago Bulls however, I don’t think it moves the needle for them to get out of the play-in. DeRozan is a good player, but can the 35 year-old, who shoots mostly mid-range shots and is a below average defender help this team get into the top 6? I just don’t think it happens unfortunately for the Kings. 

Tier IV: Outside Looking in for Playoffs as of now: Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio Spurs 

The Utah Jazz signed Lauri Markkanen to a 5 year 238 million dollar deal, but does that get them into the play-in this season? The front office the last two seasons has pulled the plug on Will Hardy’s team and they've been picking in the lottery the last two years. I think the front office finally gives Hardy a chance to coach out the team for the season. They have draft assets from other teams so tanking doesn’t look like a reasonable outcome for them this year. I just don’t think they have enough talent around Markkanen to sneak into the play-in, but it is still possible. The Los Angeles Clippers had a disastrous offseason. They lost Paul George for nothing and did not handle his contract negotiation well throughout the year. They do not own any of their first round picks for the next 7 years and are leaning on Kawhi Leonard and James Harden to lead them this year. Not exactly a great recipe to have a good year at this point in their careers. Leonard is coming off a knee injury and will James Harden be motivated coming into camp. It’s possible the Thunder will be in the top 3 of the draft next season if Leonard is hurt and Harden does not care about playing winning basketball. Nonetheless, it’s a scary time to be a Clippers fan right now.  My Dark Horse for the Tier is the San Antonio Spurs, only because they have Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama is an absolute force, who is playing with a true point guard right now after they signed Chris Paul this offseason. Wembanyama has clearly shown that his defensive ability can cover for anyone’s lapses and coming off a gold medal game loss does not signal well for the rest of the league this year. Watch for the Spurs to make a potential push into the play-in this year. 

Tier V: Who’s even on the team?: Portland Trail Blazers

The Trail Blazers are the only team in this tier because no one is as bad as them in the Western Conference. They have a collection of players that do not fill together and will be looking to gather a top 3 pick in the 2025 NBA draft. That’s all I’m going to say about the Blazers.